Post by towhom on Sept 25, 2009 4:25:01 GMT 4
Swine Flu Impacts Could Further Damage U.S. Economy, Says UAB Economist
University of Alabama at Birmingham
Posted on 9/23/2009 11:35:00 AM
main.uab.edu/Sites/MediaRelations/articles/68888/
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - H1N1 influenza could slow growth in key industries and stall already-weak GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, says a health economist in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Business.
"Tourism and travel are vitally important sectors in the economy of many U.S. cities and communities," Bryce Sutton, Ph.D. "Depending upon the severity of the spread of the virus, consumers and businesses may respond by restricting travel and vacation plans, which would dampen an already weak recovery in these areas."
AAA estimates that as many as 60 million Americans annually travel 50 miles or more from home during the country's peak travel periods, which fall on the days that surround the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Sutton says airlines, hotels and other service industries negatively impacted by recent trends of tightened consumer spending could face double jeopardy should H1N1 infections or simply fears of exposure keep would-be travelers at home.
Other business sectors could suffer, too, if sick workers and absences cut deeply into productivity and revenues, Sutton says.
"Although business managers have had time to prepare contingency plans, those that already have cut the numbers of employees in an effort to reduce costs during the downturn may be hardest hit," Sutton says. "In many cases, companies that already are working with the bare minimum staffs face further productivity challenges should large numbers of the remaining employees contract H1N1."
Sutton says more research is needed to measure the more precise impact of the H1N1 virus once the traditional U.S. flu season has passed. Until then, statements on the economic influence of the virus will reflect educated predictions based on the history of previous pandemics and their reported economic effects.
"The most recent case we have to study is the Asian SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, which negatively impacted a range of industries in Asia. The effects led to a regional loss of between 0.5 and 2 percent of GDP," Sutton says. "H1N1 impact predictions are based on examples like this one in which virus fears traditionally have had a negative influence on the economies of impacted regions.
"However, the H1N1 preparation has been much better when compared to the response of health agencies during the SARS outbreak and that could counter some potential negative impacts," he says.
About UAB
UAB is the state of Alabama's largest employer and an internationally renowned research university and academic health center whose professional schools and specialty patient care programs are consistently ranked as among the nation's top 50. The UAB Health System includes all patient-care activities, including UAB Hospital, the Callahan Eye Foundation Hospital and The Kirklin Clinic.
Thank you SOOOOoooo much for posting that rather obvious possible impact on the economy if faced with a protracted run of the H1N1 influenza virus. Well, duhhhh...like we didn't already know this? And we REALLY needed an economic cost analysis since the potential HUMAN COST isn't newsworthy. I also noticed there was absolutely NO MENTION made of the vaccines being made available to mitigate this "potential economic downswing". Surely your "...internationally renowned research university, academic health center...and specialty patient care programs...consistently ranked as among the nation's top 50..." have the information available for employees, students and patients referencing these vaccines and stand ready to discuss patient options...
The statement, "...more research is needed to measure the more precise impact of the H1N1 virus once the traditional U.S. flu season has passed" is an incredibly lame PR attempt for additional funding for more such "redundant" reports.
I was particularly "delighted" to note the School of Business generated this "piece", yet the "About UAB highlights" focus on the "(specialty) patient care programs and on-campus medical facilities".
And lastly, I remembered this quote from President Obama's recent address to Congress (cited here):
University of Alabama at Birmingham
Posted on 9/23/2009 11:35:00 AM
main.uab.edu/Sites/MediaRelations/articles/68888/
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - H1N1 influenza could slow growth in key industries and stall already-weak GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, says a health economist in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) School of Business.
"Tourism and travel are vitally important sectors in the economy of many U.S. cities and communities," Bryce Sutton, Ph.D. "Depending upon the severity of the spread of the virus, consumers and businesses may respond by restricting travel and vacation plans, which would dampen an already weak recovery in these areas."
AAA estimates that as many as 60 million Americans annually travel 50 miles or more from home during the country's peak travel periods, which fall on the days that surround the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. Sutton says airlines, hotels and other service industries negatively impacted by recent trends of tightened consumer spending could face double jeopardy should H1N1 infections or simply fears of exposure keep would-be travelers at home.
Other business sectors could suffer, too, if sick workers and absences cut deeply into productivity and revenues, Sutton says.
"Although business managers have had time to prepare contingency plans, those that already have cut the numbers of employees in an effort to reduce costs during the downturn may be hardest hit," Sutton says. "In many cases, companies that already are working with the bare minimum staffs face further productivity challenges should large numbers of the remaining employees contract H1N1."
Sutton says more research is needed to measure the more precise impact of the H1N1 virus once the traditional U.S. flu season has passed. Until then, statements on the economic influence of the virus will reflect educated predictions based on the history of previous pandemics and their reported economic effects.
"The most recent case we have to study is the Asian SARS outbreak in the early 2000s, which negatively impacted a range of industries in Asia. The effects led to a regional loss of between 0.5 and 2 percent of GDP," Sutton says. "H1N1 impact predictions are based on examples like this one in which virus fears traditionally have had a negative influence on the economies of impacted regions.
"However, the H1N1 preparation has been much better when compared to the response of health agencies during the SARS outbreak and that could counter some potential negative impacts," he says.
About UAB
UAB is the state of Alabama's largest employer and an internationally renowned research university and academic health center whose professional schools and specialty patient care programs are consistently ranked as among the nation's top 50. The UAB Health System includes all patient-care activities, including UAB Hospital, the Callahan Eye Foundation Hospital and The Kirklin Clinic.
Thank you SOOOOoooo much for posting that rather obvious possible impact on the economy if faced with a protracted run of the H1N1 influenza virus. Well, duhhhh...like we didn't already know this? And we REALLY needed an economic cost analysis since the potential HUMAN COST isn't newsworthy. I also noticed there was absolutely NO MENTION made of the vaccines being made available to mitigate this "potential economic downswing". Surely your "...internationally renowned research university, academic health center...and specialty patient care programs...consistently ranked as among the nation's top 50..." have the information available for employees, students and patients referencing these vaccines and stand ready to discuss patient options...
The statement, "...more research is needed to measure the more precise impact of the H1N1 virus once the traditional U.S. flu season has passed" is an incredibly lame PR attempt for additional funding for more such "redundant" reports.
I was particularly "delighted" to note the School of Business generated this "piece", yet the "About UAB highlights" focus on the "(specialty) patient care programs and on-campus medical facilities".
And lastly, I remembered this quote from President Obama's recent address to Congress (cited here):
Unfortunately, in 34 states, 75 percent of the insurance market is controlled by five or fewer companies. In Alabama, almost 90 percent is controlled by just one company. And without competition, the price of insurance goes up and quality goes down. And it makes it easier for insurance companies to treat their customers badly -- by cherry-picking the healthiest individuals and trying to drop the sickest, by overcharging small businesses who have no leverage, and by jacking up rates.[/color][/blockquote][/b][/i]Now, given that UAB is the state's largest employer, it would seem that the "health care insurance provider" for this "employer" is attempting to make a "profound" statement through its "largest policy payee".